Vijay Sales Mumbai

India fears bear-market phase ahead

Mumbai: The US credit rating cut and European debt uncertainties put the Indian markets on wobbly ground just three years after the last global sell-off, while holding out the prospect that the central bank may be forced to pause in its anti-inflation campaign and that some relief may come in the form of lower commodity prices as a result of economic strife elsewhere.

The main concern of the markets is that foreign institutional investors (FIIs), which drive the Indian markets, may need to pull out from the country in order to meet redemption pressure at home—a replay of the 2008 slump.

From its 52-week intraday high of 21,108.65 points in November last year, the benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index, or Sensex, hit a low of 16,990.91 on Friday, down 19.5%.

The Nifty, the broader market index of the National Stock Exchange, hit a low of 5,116.45 points, down 19.3% from its November 2010 intraday high of 6,338.5.

The Indian markets are barely a few hundred points away from entering a bear-market phase, according to Vanguard Group .

“While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period,” according to Vanguard.

The US economy’s cloudy recovery prospects may push equity markets further down globally, leading to bulk selling of domestic stocks by foreign investors. Money will gravitate to safer assets. Bondholders looking for AAA-rated government instruments may prefer to invest in the paper issued by France, Germany, Canada and the UK. All such capital flows are routed through FIIs.

“India is perceived as a risky emerging market and for such a market the risk appetite of FIIs would be lower than a risky developed market,” said U.R. Bhat, managing director of Dalton Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd. “The concern is if there is any FII outflow due to redemption pressures, our markets may enter a bear market phase.”

The top FIIs in India, with an exposure of close to at least $30 billion in Indian equities, are Capital Group Companies, HSBC Holdings Plc, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase and Co.

There are 1,738 registered FIIs and they have 5,958 sub-accounts. In August so far, foreign investors have sold Indian stocks worth $336.74 million, though net investments since January stand at close to $2 billion.

In 2008, FIIs sold Indian shares worth $11.97 billion.

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Originating from the principle of giving customers the best in quality and service, Vijay Sales was established as a partnership firm by Mr. Nanu Gupta, an entrepreneur with astute business acumen and foresight. From a small TV showroom in Mahim in 1967, Vijay Sales has long since evolved into one of Mumbai’s leading chain of electronic superstores, now having expanded to major cities across India.

Along with a team of professional managers, delivering on the promise of servicing customer needs and efficient post-sales services, together with his two sons Mr. Nilesh Gupta and Mr. Ashish Gupta, Mr. Nanu Gupta remains the driving force behind the Vijay Sales enterprise.

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